Incomplete Policy Voting

The Japanese General Election of 1996

Abstract

This article examines the effect of the voter's evaluation of the parties' policy stances on voting behavior. I use both a five-factor and an eight-factor model, but both analyses center on three groups of variables: evaluation of party policy, evaluation of the party, and evaluation of the candidate. In the analysis of vote intentions in the pre-election survey, I find that policy evaluation is the second strongest predictor, following party evaluations in the PR vote. Similarly, it is second to candidate evaluation in the SMD vote. We cannot conclude that issue voting is more prevalent in the PR election than in the SMD election. The effect of policy on voting for the LDP differs little from its effect on voting for any of the other parties. Thus, the LDP won the election, despite the ideal opposition issue of the Consumers' Tax, because party evaluations continued to suppress policy evaluations.