This study explored the fundamental process that controls interannual change in plankton biomass on the Pacific coast of Japan, focusing on the spring period of shirasu fishery. A 1-D model of primary production revealed that the strength of horizontal advection induced by warm water intrusion from the Kuroshio into the Pacific coast is the most critical for plankton biomass compared with other factors such as diffusion and production. This conclusion was also confirmed by a sensitivity analysis of the model.

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