Transactions of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan
Online ISSN : 2186-2931
Print ISSN : 1347-2879
ISSN-L : 1347-2879
Development of a Source Term Estimation Method for Nuclear Emergency by Long-range Atmospheric Dispersion Simulations
Akiko FURUNOMasamichi CHINOHiromi YAMAZAWA
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2006 Volume 5 Issue 3 Pages 229-240

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Abstract

This paper describes a method of estimating source term, i.e., location, period and amount of atmospheric release of radioactive material in real-time during nuclear emergency. This method consists of: (1) trial simulations of atmospheric dispersions on the possible combinations of these parameters and (2) statistical comparison of model predictions with offsite measurements of air concentrations of radionuclides and/or air dose rates from monitoring stations, to find a set of release condition providing model prediction that fits best to the measurement. A parallel execution method for efficiently processing many possible initial conditions is also developed. The performance of this method is favorably evaluated by a verification study using the dataset from European Tracer Experiment.

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