In the field of urban planning, building lots are an important subject area for consideration since the individual lot forms the fundamental basic unit of land use. Lots consolidation should be promoted from the viewpoint of environmental planning and disaster prevention planning, specifically in the established city area in which subdivision of standard lots has been often observed. In this paper, we construct a stochastic model which describes the possibility and the probability that lots will be consolidated and form larger spatial unit. The unknown parameters of the model are estimated using the GIS data compiled by a local government ward in Tokyo. It is shown that the probability of lots consolidation is mainly dependent on the relationships with neighboring lots and location, as well as the properties of lots themselves. The spatial distribution of the probability of lots consolidation is shown using the estimated model.
