In recent years, DCP (District Continuity Plan) as well as BCP (Business Continuity Plan) assuming a devastating earthquake is a big concern in many private companies and local governments. However, a large number of people are expected to have difficulty in commuting, since public transportations are presumed to be paralyzed and unavailable in the aftermath of a devastating earthquake. In this paper, first, we construct a simulation model which estimates possibilities and probabilities of commuting, which is composed of a model describing employees' intentions of commuting, and a model describing their physical strength of moving on foot or by bicycle. Next, we attempt to estimate the number of people who would experience the difficulty in commuting, and to discuss the spatial distribution of commuters, which varies according to their detailed attributes, such as sex and occupations. Finally, we evaluate the reduction-rate of people with difficulty in commuting through simulations assuming the restoration works for damaged railroad lines.
