EVALUATION OF WALKABILITY OF FUTURE SPRAWL AREAS BY SCENARIO PLANNING
－ Toward smart decline for Ibaraki city in Northern Osaka Metropolitan Area －
2020 Volume 85 Issue 767 Pages 101-111
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2020 Volume 85 Issue 767 Pages 101-111
The purpose of this paper is to evaluates a smart decline scenario in metropolitan sprawl areas to examine its potential as an alternative to the Japanese compact city policy. This paper defined “smart decline” as design methods intended to satisfy residents’ lifestyle needs in the context of population decline. Testing smart decline scenario would provide the Japanese government with information about renovations that would help it to achieve desirable levels of infrastructure in sprawl area. This study utilized relevant research methodologies and analyses in a case study of Ibaraki city in the Northern Osaka Metropolitan Area. Especially, this paper had four results in bellow.
Chapter 2 clarified driving forces that influence on future metropolitan areas. The method of chapter 2 was semi-structured interviewing for the administrative staff of Ibaraki City government. As a result, the chapter got 24 factors and two driving forces; “Land uses” and “Urban facilities”. Based on the driving forces, this chapter made scenario matrix. The scenario matrix shows that four distinct scenarios; they are scenario to utilize vacant land, scenario to withdraw from the suburban, scenario to accumulate on one pole, scenario to accumulate on multipolar. Based on the scenario matrix, Chapter 3 analyzed “Diversity of land uses” and Chapter 4 analyzed “Location of urban facilities”.
Chapter 3 clarified “Diversity of land uses” from the perspective of entropy of land use. The method of Chapter 3 was GIS analysis in Northern Osaka Metropolitan Area. The result shows that entropy of land uses in sprawl area is higher than other residential clusters. Besides, they suggest that the land use of residence, farm lands, industry and park/green influence positively on diversity of land use.
On the other hand, chapter 4 clarified location of urban facilities from the perspective intention to live. The method of chapter 4 was questionnaire survey for 3000 people who live in Ibaraki city. The results suggest that the type of facility influenced residential intentions differently: the type of facility desired near transit stations was different from the type desired for the neighborhood. For example, ‘nursery/kindergarten’ facilities near transit stations positively influenced the residential intentions of the respondents in sprawl areas.
Based on the results of chapter 3 and chapter 4, chapter 5 evaluated effective scenario as smart decline from the perspective of walkability. For the purpose, this chapter had three steps. First, this chapter made flow chart of each scenario by the result of “Diversity of land uses in Chapter 3” and “Location of urban facilities in Chapter 4”. Second, it calculated Walkability Wi(i) of the four scenarios by walkability indicator which Kato et al. (2017) developed. Lastly, it compared the Wi(i) of four scenarios and current walkability with p value. The results suggest that citizens were able to sustain their sustainable living in sprawl areas, regardless of the scenario. Among the scenarios, the scenario to utilize vacant land is slightly more effective than scenario to accumulate on multipolar. Therefore, the “scenario to utilize vacant land” was found to be the effective as an alternative to the Japanese compact city policy. As a result, this paper defined the “scenario to utilize vacant land” as smart decline in sprawl area. Smart decline would maintain the sprawl areas in realistic ways.
