時間軸上の死者低減率最大化を主目標とした木造住宅耐震化戦略の策定

―東海・東南海連動型地震を対象とした東海4県への適用事例―

抄録

We learned from the 1995 Hanshin Awaji earthquake that most of the death toll arised from many vulnerable wooden houses collapsed by seismic ground motions and seismic strengthening wooden houses is the highest priorty strategy for preventing death. This paper discusses effective strategy of seismic strengthening houses for reduction of death toll. In the first part, we construct the equations by which the death toll in districts can be estimated with considering the rate of seismic strengthening that is increased by rebuilding or seismic repairing, and the negative effect as aged deterioration of house. In the second part, we apply the equations to the area of 4 prefectures in Tokai district and estimate the time variation of death reduction in order to figure out the effect of some kinds of seismic strengthening strategies. As a result we simulated that when the seismic repairing of houses is planed in target districts the strategy giving priority to vulnerable houses is more effective to decrease the death toll than any other strategies having no priority on structural strength of house.