Abstract
In Mongolia, serious winter-disasters (dzuds) have historically occurred and caused great livestock damages, recent examples for which are those in 1999-2002 and 2009-2010. To moderate the damages of the disasters, we first need to understand its mechanism, and then develop an effective early warning system with taking into account the effect of the ongoing climate change. In this presentation I want to introduce our activity using an empirical model and outputs of climate models, and discuss the future drought as well as dzud early warning system considering the social factors.
