地域農業の構造変化と就農者創出の可能性

抄録

This paper aims to draw the picture of regional agriculture in the future based on the change in an agricultural structure in recent years and to examine the appearance possibility of new farmers.
In the estimate results of using the Markov model, the total number of farm households in Japan is expected to decrease to 1, 936, 000 by 2020, down 1, 184, 000 from the level at the time of the 2000 agricultural census (decrease rate: 37.9%). The cultivated land is estimated at 2, 987, 000ha (decrease rate: 23.1%), the decrease rate in Hokkaido is lower than other prefectures.
In addition, a number of new farmers necessary to maintain the cultivated land of 80% was estimated to eight times present. It is not so easy to secure a lot of farmers like this. However, the possibility exists.
The city inhabitants who hope to be engaged in agriculture are in the tendency which increases greatly in recent years. Moreover, the graduate persons of the farm household who resign and engaged in agriculture increase in not only the middle age group but also the young people group. When the environment in which both can be engaged in agriculture is arranged, securing the number of target farmers becomes possible.