外国銀行の進出と信用供給の安定性

世界金融危機時のインドネシア

抄録

The number of foreign banks entering Indonesia has increased in recent times, and they now account for over 30% of the Indonesian banking system. This rapid entry of foreign banks poses a concern as in the event of a financial crisis they could pull out funds and destabilize the supply of loans. This concern is due to the fact that, before the Asian currency crisis, Indonesia was dependent on short-term foreign borrowing and suffered huge losses. Above all, the lending behavior of foreign banks during the global financial crisis is a key element in any discussion of financial stability in Asia. Therefore, this study will investigate the fear of destabilization by comparing lending behavior between foreign banks and local banks.
This study uses financial data of the respective banks and will try to examine lending behavior before and after the global financial crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Thedetection of differences in changes of foreign currency loans and local currency loans between foreign banks and local banks employs standard statistical methods: the Kruskal-Wallis test, the Steel-Dwass test, and regression analysis. Furthermore, we will answer the question as to whether the entry of foreign banks destabilizes the loan supply by studying factors which explain the differences in lending behavior.
It is found that both foreign as well as local banks showed an increase in the disbursment of local currency loans in spite of the global financial crisis. In particular, acquired local banks increased their loan amounts by more than 10% due to the availability of dense branch networks.We did not find that foreign banks destabilized local currency loans. In contrast, both foreign banks and joint-venture banks decreased their issuance of foreign currency loans. The explanation is that parent banks which suffered losses restructured their businesses. Moreover, some joint-venture banks whose home countries had not been hit by the financial crisis decreased foreign currency loans. However, attention should be paid to the behavior of foreign banks and joint-venture banks because their share of foreign currency loans is high. Meanwhile, acquired local banks increased the provision of foreign currency loans dramatically. This huge increase covered the decrease in loans by foreign banks and joint-venture banks and contributed to the stability of the loan supply. These results proved that the entry of a string of foreign banks does not destabilize the loan supply even in the event of a global financial crisis.