Behaviormetrika
Online ISSN : 1349-6964
Print ISSN : 0385-7417
ISSN-L : 0385-7417
PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRIENDSHIP TIES AMONG A GROUP OF STUDENTS VIA MULTIDIMENSIONAL SCALING : AN ANALYSIS OF NORDLIE'S FRATERNITY DATA
Akinori OkadaYumi Asahi
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1998 年 25 巻 2 号 p. 165-179

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The attraction among a group of subjects was predicted by a procedure which had been originally introduced to predict the amount of purchase of a brand. The procedure, which is based on two multidimensional scaling methods ; INDSCAL and PREFMAP, was applied to friendship tie data among members of a group of 17 students collected once a week for 16 weeks (Newcomb, 1961 ; Nordlie, 1958). Three subjects, who had received relatively unstable and dissimilar attractions among the 17 subjects, were selected. The attraction from the 17 subjects to the three subjects was analyzed by the procedure. The 17 subjects were cluster analyzed using the data at weeks 0 through 8, and were grouped into three clusters. The attraction from each of the three clusters to the three subjects at weeks 0 through 8 were analyzed to predict the attraction at weeks 9 through 15. The predicted attraction was compared with the actual attraction at weeks 10 through 15 (data at week 9 were missing). The comparison shows that five of the nine root mean squares of discrepancy between the predicted and actual attractions were smaller than unit rank, and that the prediction was successful.

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