Biological and Pharmaceutical Bulletin
Online ISSN : 1347-5215
Print ISSN : 0918-6158
ISSN-L : 0918-6158
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Analysis of Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events in Patients Treated with Oseltamivir in Spontaneous Adverse Event Reports
Natsumi UedaRyogo UmetsuJunko AbeYamato KatoYoko NakayamaZenichiro KatoYasutomi KinosadaMitsuhiro Nakamura
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2015 Volume 38 Issue 10 Pages 1638-1644

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Abstract

There have been concerns that oseltamivir causes neuropsychiatric adverse events (NPAEs). We analyzed the association of age and gender with NPAEs in patients treated with oseltamivir using a logistic regression model. NPAE data were obtained from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (2004 to 2013). The lower limit of the reporting odds ratio (ROR) 95% confidence interval (CI) of “abnormal behavior” in Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan was ≥1. The effects of the interaction terms for oseltamivir in male patients aged 10–19 years were statistically significant. The adjusted ROR of “abnormal behavior” was 96.4 (95% CI, 77.5–119.9) in male patients aged 10–19 years treated with osletamivir. In female patients, the results of the likelihood ratio test for “abnormal behavior” were not statistically significant. The adjusted NPAE RORs were increased in male and female patients under the age of 20 years. Oseltamivir use could be associated with “abnormal behavior” in males aged 10–19 years. After considering the causality restraints of the current analysis, further epidemiological studies are recommended.

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) is a neuraminidase inhibitor commonly used as an anti-viral in the treatment of influenza.1) Administrative authorities have issued warnings regarding the risk of neuropsychiatric adverse events (NPAEs) following oseltamivir use. In March 2007, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) warned against the use of oseltamivir in children aged 10–19 years because it could cause abnormal behavior. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) added a warning to the oseltamivir label in 2006 to draw attention to the risk of NPAEs. Recent reports suggest that NPAEs may occur after oseltamivir administration.29)

In prophylaxis studies, oseltamivir increased the risk of psychiatric adverse events during the combined “on-treatment” and “off-treatment” periods (risk difference 1.06, 0.07 to 2.76%).2) A cohort study indicated a slightly increased risk of delirium with oseltamivir use in patients under 18 years (hazard ratio: 1.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95–2.40, p=0.084).3) Data from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) indicates that certain NPAEs are disproportionally reported after oseltamivir use.4) Several cases of oseltamivir-induced NPAEs have been reported, including mania in a Chinese patient5) and depressive episodes in Korean patients.6)

However, a number of epidemiological studies, controlled studies, and commentaries indicate that there is no relationship between oseltamivir use and NPAEs.1013) Significant controversy exists regarding whether NPAEs result from oseltamivir use. Given this conflicting data, the optimal dosing for patients who require oseltamivir therapy is uncertain.

FAERS is a passive reporting system covering several million case reports on adverse events that is used for pharmacovigilance.14)

Data from the FAERS indicate that certain NPAEs are disproportionately reported after oseltamivir use, especially in Japan.4) To our knowledge, reports from Asian countries other than Japan were not evaluated in the FAERS database. Furthermore, the effect of age and gender on the relationship between oseltamivir and NPAEs has not yet been evaluated using the FAERS database.

Owing to the risk of reporting bias, there are legitimate reasons to doubt the stated benefits and/or risks of FAERS data.14) Despite the limitations inherent to spontaneous reporting, these databases are still the primary tool used for pharmacovigilance, because they reflect the realities of clinical practice.15,16) The pharmacovigilance index, termed the reporting odds ratio (ROR), was developed to detect drug-associated adverse events in the spontaneous reporting database, and is not applicable for evaluating the comparative strength of causalities.17) However, the ROR is applicable to a logistic regression model, which allows for the control of covariates.15,17) We evaluated the possible relationship between oseltamivir use and NPAEs from data available in the FAERS databases using the ROR and logistic regression analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Adverse events recorded from January 2004 to March 2013 in the FAERS database were obtained from the FDA website (www.fda.gov). The FAERS structure complies with the International Conference on Harmonization and the international safety reporting guidelines, ICH E2B. The adverse events are coded according to the terminology preferred by the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA).18) DrugBank, a reliable drug database, was utilized as a dictionary for the batch conversion and compilation of drug names.19)

In instances of duplicate entries, we adopted the most recent case number in order to identify duplicate reports of the same patient that come from different reporting sources and excluded these from the analysis as is described in the downloadable file ‘Asc_nts.doc’ from the FAERS database website. Patients with NPAEs were grouped by gender, and each gender group was stratified by age: <10 years, 10–19 years, ≥20 years. We extracted those reports that contained the preferred term (PT) “abnormal behavior” from the MedDRA. To further evaluate the effect of oseltamivir in NPAEs, we selected 57 additional PTs related to NPAEs described in the Japanese package insert of oseltamivir (Table 1).

Table 1. Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events Associated with Oseltamivir in FAERS (January 2004–March 2013)
HLTa)PTb)PT codeTotalCasesc)%RORd)(95%CIe))
Total2220291347
Disturbances in consciousness NECf)Altered state of consciousness100018543306352.65.2(3.7–7.2)
Depressed level of consciousness1001237310200866.44.1(3.3–5.1)
Loss of consciousness1002485528249926.81.6(1.3–1.9)
Stupor1004226493910.1
Breath holding10006322290
Staring1004195364760.44.5(2.0–10.0)
Regressive behavior100547207610.1
Abnormal behavior100614221160248936.323.5(21.3–25.8)
Sexually inappropriate behavior10070240410
DeliriaDelirium10012218628316412.213.3(11.4–15.6)
Delirium tremens100122251090
Delirium febrile100592672780.6202.4(88.5–462.5)
Perception disturbancesHallucination100190631237328621.212.0(10.7–13.6)
Hallucination, auditory100190703119372.75.8(4.2–8.0)
Hallucination, gustatory1001907190
Hallucination, olfactory10019072810
Hallucination, visual100190753921493.66.1(4.6–8.1)
Hallucination, tactile100190741190
Hallucinations, mixed10019079842131.07.5(4.4–13.0)
Somatic hallucination10062684200
Hallucination, synaesthetic1006282470
Delusional perception100122589010.1
Narcolepsy and associated conditionsHypnagogic hallucination100209274010.1
Hypnopompic hallucination10020928150
Delusional symptomsDelusion100122392973483.67.9(6.0–10.6)
Delusion of reference10012244430
Delusion of replacement10012245240
Delusions, mixed1001226320
Erotomanic delusion1001513440
Jealous delusion10023164490
Persecutory delusion1003470253720.1
Somatic delusion10041317760
Depressive delusion10063033150
Delusion of grandeur100122411200
Seizures and seizure disorders NECf)Convulsion100109043323417412.92.6(2.2–3.0)
Convulsion neonatal10010911790
Drug withdrawal convulsions100137521640
Tonic convulsion1004399431120.1
Convulsion in childhood1005239140
Clonic convulsion1005339821310.1
Convulsions local10010920360
Febrile convulsion1001628429560.410.0(4.4–22.4)
Anxiety symptomsAgitation1000149717046846.22.4(1.9–3.0)
Tremor (excl congenital)Tremor1004456530757523.90.8(0.6–1.1)
Essential tremor1001549614310.1
Intention tremor1002252015910.1
Orthostatic tremor1006991770
Resting tremor10071390330
Psychogenic tremor1007237700
Action tremor1007241310
Postural tremor1007321110
ParasomniasNightmare100294126557584.34.3(3.3–5.6)
Abnormal dreams100001257066131.00.9(0.5–1.5)
Neurological signs and symptoms NECf)Dizziness1001357379088906.70.5(0.4–0.7)
Dizziness exertional10013576590
Dizziness postural10013578114530.21.3(0.4–3.9)
Apocrine and eccrine gland disordersNight sweats10029410428580.60.9(0.4–1.8)

a) HLT: High level terms in MedDRA. b) PT: Preferred terms in MedDRA. c) Patients who reported adverse events taking oseltamivir. d) ROR: Reporting odds ratio. e) CI: Confidence interval. f) NEC: Not elsewhere classified.  Number of cases ≤2.

Using established pharmacovigilance indices, “cases” were defined as patients who reported NPAEs, while “non-cases” consisted of patients who reported other side effects.15) The ROR is the ratio of the odds of reporting an adverse event versus all other events for oseltamivir compared to the odds of reporting an adverse event for all other drugs present in the database.14,15,20) RORs were expressed as point estimates with a 95% CI. A signal is considered an event when the lower limit of the ROR 95% CI is ≥1,20) and at least 3 cases were required to define the signal. We refined the signal with a dedicated correction to detect possible confounding factors present in the database. The RORs were adjusted for age in the male and female subset groups using logistic regression analysis. To construct the logistic model, we included the terms for reporting year, oseltamivir, age-stratified group, and the co-occurrence of oseltamivir use within the age-stratified groups. The logistic model used to calculate the adjusted ROR was as follows:   

This model can be compared with a model in which no interaction term is present. A likelihood ratio test can be used to evaluate the effect of adding the term. Because the difference in −2 log-likelihood follows a chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom, adding the interaction term in this case is statistically significant (p<0.05). To calculate the adjusted RORs, the ≥20 years group was used as a reference group. Data analyses were performed using JMP version 11.0 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, U.S.A.).

RESULTS

The FAERS database contains 4746890 reports from January 2004 to March 2013. After excluding duplicates according to the FDA recommendation, there were 3522995 reports that were usable. We excluded a further 1265093 reports because the age and gender were not indicated and finally analyzed 2257902. The total number of reports citing NPAEs and oseltamivir were 222029 and 4696, respectively. In 1347 cases, the NPAEs corresponded to the 57 PTs associated with oseltamivir use.

The data stratified by age and gender are summarized in Table 2. “Abnormal behavior” was primarily reported in people under 20 years of age. The RORs (95%CI) of “abnormal behavior” in Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan were 30.6 (27.0–34.7), 94.4 (18.3–486.8), and 15.3 (4.5–52.5), and those of “NPAEs” were 3.6 (3.3–3.9), 11.1 (5.3–23.4), and 1.3 (0.6–3.1), respectively (Table 3).

Table 2. Reporting Odds Ratio for Abnormal Behavior and Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events Stratified by Age and Gender
TotalCasesa)RORb)(95%CIc))
Abnormal behavior1160248923.7(21.6–26.1)
Male639633536.9(32.8–41.5)
0–9 years143416773.4(61.4–87.7)
10–19 years123912689.4(72.3–110.4)
≥20 years3723427.5(5.5–10.2)
Female520615412.6(10.7–14.8)
0–9 years6237948.4(37.8–62.0)
10–19 years6182722.7(15.2–33.6)
≥20 years3965485.1(3.8–6.7)
Neuropsychiatric adverse events (NPAEs)22202913473.8(3.5–4.0)
Male888807845.3(4.9–5.8)
0–9 years544932710.5(8.9–12.3)
10–19 years614823813.3(10.9–16.2)
≥20 years772832192.2(1.9–2.6)
Female1331495632.6(2.4–2.9)
0–9 years36141868.1(6.6–9.9)
10–19 years5877904.9(3.8–6.4)
≥20 years1236582871.6(1.4–1.9)

a) Patients who reported adverse events taking oseltamivir. b) ROR: Reporting odds ratio. c) CI: Confidence interval.

Table 3. Number and Reporting Odds Ratio for Abnormal Behavior and Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events Stratified by Countries in Asia
RORa)(95%CIb))Casesc)Reporting number
n(%)OseltamivirAdverse events
Abnormal behavior
FAERS22.2(20.4–24.3)551(8.5)650815113
China1(1.6)6121
Japan30.6(27.0–34.7)424(17.5)24211220
Korea2(1.9)10420
Singapore94.4(18.3–486.8)3(9.1)336
Taiwan15.3(4.5–52.5)3(5.5)5527
Neuropsychiatric adverse events (NPAEs)
FAERS3.3(3.1–3.5)1528(23.5)6508299707
China0.6(0.2–1.9)3(4.9)611065
Japan3.6(3.3–3.9)707(29.2)242112731
Korea0.4(0.2–1.2)4(3.8)104683
Singapore11.1(5.3–23.4)11(33.3)33133
Taiwan1.3(0.6–3.1)6(10.9)55549

a) ROR: Reporting odds ratio. b) CI: Confidence interval. c) Patients who reported adverse events taking oseltamivir.  Number of cases ≤2.

The number of cases and the ROR (95%CI) for each PT are summarized in Table 1. The number of cases of “abnormal behavior,” “hallucination,” “convulsion,” and “delirium” were 489 (36.3%), 286 (21.2%), 174 (12.9%), and 164 (12.2%), respectively. The RORs (95%CI) for “abnormal behavior,” “hallucination,” “convulsion,” and “delirium” were 23.5 (21.3–25.8), 12.0 (10.7–13.6), 2.6 (2.2–3.0), and 13.3 (11.4–15.6), respectively. If the patient used oseltamivir, the lower limit of the ROR 95%CI for “abnormal behavior” was ≥1.

The adjusted RORs for “abnormal behavior” and “NPAEs” stratified by age and gender are summarized in Table 4. A likelihood ratio test was used to evaluate the effect of adding the term of oseltamivir* 10–19 years for abnormal behavior in male patients. Adding this interaction term had a statistically significant effect (p=0.0006). The adjusted ROR (95%CI) for “abnormal behavior” when considering oseltamivir* 10–19 years was 96.4 (77.5–119.9). When considering NPAEs, the likelihood ratio tests for oseltamivir* 0–9 years and oseltamivir* 10–19 years were also statistically significant (p<0.0001). The adjusted RORs (95%CI) for oseltamivir* 0–9 years and oseltamivir* 10–19 years were 10.7 (9.2–12.5) and 13.4 (11.0–16.3), respectively.

Table 4. Adjusted Reporting Odds Ratio for Abnormal Behavior and Neuropsychiatric Adverse Events
Abnormal behaviorNeuropsychiatric adverse events (NPAEs)
Likelihood ratio testAdjusted RORa)(95%CIb))Likelihood ratio testAdjusted ROR(95%CI)
Male subgroup (N=887157)
Oseltamivir<0.0001*8.3(6.1–11.4)<0.0001*2.3(2.0–2.6)
Reporting year<0.0001*0.9(0.9–0.9)<0.0001*0.9(0.9–0.9)
AGE
0–9 years<0.0001*8.7(8.2–9.3)<0.0001*1.8(1.7–1.8)
10–19 years<0.0001*6.1(5.7–6.5)<0.0001*1.6(1.6–1.7)
Interaction term oseltamivir* AGE
Oseltamivir* 0–9 years0.575180.8(67.2–97.1)<0.0001*10.7(9.2–12.5)
Oseltamivir* 10–19 years0.0006*96.4(77.5–119.9)<0.0001*13.4(11.0–16.3)
Oseltamivir* ≥20 years (as reference)1.01.0
Female subgroup (N=1370745)
Oseltamivir<0.0001*8.5(6.3–11.3)<0.0001*1.7(1.5–1.9)
Reporting year<0.0001*0.9(0.9–0.9)<0.0001*0.9(0.9–0.9)
AGE
0–9 years<0.0001*7.6(6.9–8.3)<0.0001*1.6(1.5–1.6)
10–19 years<0.0001*4.0(3.7–4.4)<0.0001*1.3(1.2–1.3)
Interaction term oseltamivir* AGE
Oseltamivir* 0–9 years0.234181.3(63.6–103.9)<0.0001*8.3(6.8–10.2)
Oseltamivir* 10–19 years0.710737.7(25.3–56.0)<0.0001*5.0(3.8–6.5)
Oseltamivir* ≥20 years (as reference)1.01.0

a) ROR: Reporting odds ratio. b) CI: Confidence interval. * Statistically significant.

Among female patients, the likelihood ratio test for “abnormal behavior” was not statistically significant. When considering NPAEs, the likelihood ratio tests using oseltamivir* 0–9 years and oseltamivir* 10–19 years were statistically significant (p<0.0001). The adjusted RORs (95%CI) for oseltamivir* 0–9 years and oseltamivir* 10–19 years were 8.3 (6.8–10.2) and 5.0 (3.8–6.5), respectively.

DISCUSSION

The ROR was developed to detect unexpected adverse events.14) The ROR of “abnormal behavior” in Singapore, and Taiwan was ≥1 at 95%CI in Table 3. The ROR of Japan and Singapore were higher than those from other countries. Japan uses more than 75% of the oseltamivir manufactured.12) Pediatric use of oseltamivir to treat influenza is higher in Japan than in the United States.10) Thus, it is not surprising that most NPAE reports are from Japan. One plausible reason for this difference could be inflated numbers of spontaneous event reports due to “notoriety bias,” which was caused by media attention and publicity after regulatory action in Japan.21) Genetic profile among Asian populations may reveal similarities, and the observation of NPAEs in Japanese patients treated with oseltamivir may be relevant in other Asian countries. Since prescribing oseltamivir has become more widespread, further epidemiological studies, such as case-control and follow-up studies, are necessary in Asian populations.

In Table 4, we demonstrated a possible relationship between oseltamivir use and “abnormal behavior” in male patients between the ages of 10 and 19 years using the adjusted ROR and logistic regression analysis. Previous reports using the FAERS database discussed only a small number of reported cases where abnormal behavior was increased by oseltamivir, as assessed using the RORs.3) The ROR does not allow for the evaluation of comparative strength of causality and offers only a rough indication of the strength of the signal.22) The adjusted RORs were increased in male and female patients under the age of 20 years. As for “abnormal behavior,” the adjusted RORs for oseltamivir in the male patients aged 10–19 years had the highest values. The effects of the interaction terms for oseltamivir in the male patients aged 10–19 years were statistically significant, and the estimated values for this term in the logistic regression exceed 0. We refined the covariates for female patients the likelihood ratio test for “abnormal behavior” was not statistically significant in female patient. “Abnormal behavior” may not be influenced by oseltamivir in females.

In contrast, some NPAEs may be associated with oseltamivir use in both genders. This may be because the PTs for NPAEs were determined using the Japanese package insert for oseltamivir, which contains a number of symptoms related to “abnormal behavior” in clinical practices. Thus, it may be crucial to address NPAEs in a clinical setting among patients under 20 years of age.

Toovey et al. reported that the largest category of NPAEs in the FAERS database from 2007 to 2010 was abnormal behavior (25.3%).10) NPAEs were also more common in children, representing 59.4% of adverse events in people under the age of 16 years.10) Most NPAEs were reported in patients less than 20 years of age (Table 2). Our study supports previous observations that the FAERS database contains a disproportionately high number of reports involving NPAEs linked to oseltamivir.

The relationship between oseltamivir use and NPAEs is poorly understood, since similar NPAEs were observed in the absence of oseltamivir.10,12,13) Influenza is associated with a variety of neurological and behavioral symptoms, including hallucinations, delirium, and abnormal behavior. These events may occur in the setting of encephalitis or encephalopathy.23)

The risk of NPAEs associated with oseltamivir has been controversial, and has been predominantly indicated in case reports, but not in controlled studies and preclinical research. A number of publications suggested that there is no evidence, nor plausible mechanism of action, to link oseltamivir with NPAEs.10,12,13) They concluded that the risk of abnormal behavior was increased by influenza, and not by oseltamivir use. Urushihara et al. reported that the number of abnormal behavior reports in Japan was consistently dependent on the size of the population treated with antivirals except for the reporting for oseltamivir in fiscal year 2007.8) They considered that potential biases introduced in the spontaneous adverse events reporting system might be substantial, making results difficult to interpret.

An epidemiologic study was conducted in Japan in 2006–2007 to evaluate the relationship between oseltamivir and NPAEs.11) The research group also concluded that no positive associations were detected between oseltamivir and abnormal behaviors. In contrast, Yorifuji et al. disagreed and proposed correct analysis (based on the person-time approach) and recalculated the estimated crude rate ratio of 1.57 (95%CI 1.34–1.83).7,24,25) Fujita et al. indicated a slightly increased risk of NPAEs in the cohort study.3) Hoffman et al. reported that FAERS data suggest disproportionally elevated reporting of certain NPAEs linked to oseltamivir in 2013.4) In 2014, members of the Cochrane Collaboration and others reported that NPAEs were increased in the combined on- and off-treatment periods in oseltamivir prophylaxis studies.2,26) Against such a background, we provide new information to the on-going controversy regarding NPAEs related to oseltamivir. Despite the limitations, we hope these findings offer an update for clinicians.

As for possible mechanism of neuropsychiatric adverse events in patients treated with oseltamivir, one plausible mechanism of action might be based on an increase in the penetration rate of the active metabolite (oseltamivir carboxylate) from the plasma to the central nervous system (CNS). Toovey et al. indicated that the penetration into the CNS of both oseltamivir and active metabolite was low in adults, and that they were and no specific CNS/behavioral effects after administration of doses corresponding to>or=100 times the clinical dose in animal studies.12) On the other hand, it has recently been reported that developmental changes in p-glycoprotein function in the blood brain barrier of rhesus monkeys using positron emission tomography (PET) with R-(11)C-oseltamivir, and this change may be closely related to the observed difference in drug responses in the brains of children and adult humans.27) Another group, using PET and autoradiography, radioactivity observed in the brains of infant, juvenile and adult rats after injection of [(11)C] oseltamivir.28) The highest radioactivity was found in the infant brain and the radioactivity level decreased with age.28) Furthermore, in acute encephalopathies and encephalitis, there is usually brain edema with evidence of damage to the blood brain barrier, which might be considered to cause an increase in the penetration of oseltamivir into the CNS.29) To the best of our knowledge, there have been no reports on the relationship between the concentrations of the active metabolite in the plasma (or in the CNS) and NPAEs in children. Wherever feasible, retrospective or prospective research using the data from oseltamivir clinical trials in children should be undertaken in the future.

We do not have a conclusive explanation for the gender difference in NPAEs in patients treated with oseltamivir. Hoshino et al. reported that no gender difference was noted in acute encephalopathy.30) Several reports suggest that in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), boys are likely to be more hyperactive and impulsive and to have more comorbid externalizing disorder.31,32) The objection will no doubt be raised that ADHD and NPAEs in patients treated with oseltamivir are different; however, the gender difference in ADHD might be a thought-provoking observation in the interpretation of our results.

Our disproportionality analysis has several limitations. Because of common errors within spontaneous reporting databases, such as reporting bias, the cases reported in the FAERS databases do not always contain sufficient information to properly evaluate an event. We partially mitigate the confounding factors using the logistic regression method. Potential signals of adverse events are likely to be small and difficult to detect. The marked under-reporting that is common in FAERS may have resulted in ROR being underestimated. Further, it might be difficult to evaluate causality between oseltamivir and NAPEs, since there is a lack of information on dose response or withdrawal in patients. Despite the limitations, our results indicate that oseltamivir influences “abnormal behavior” in male patients between the ages of 10 and 19 years. Furthermore, oseltamivir may influence NPAEs in patients of both genders under the age of 20 years. Thus, young male patients should be closely monitored for the occurrence of “abnormal behavior” or “NPAEs” when they are prescribed oseltamivir. We hope that these data will enhance the information available to clinicians and be useful for improving the management of influenza.

Acknowledgment

This research was partially supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number, 24390126.

Conflict of Interest

JA is an employee of Medical Database. The rest of the authors have no conflict of interest.

REFERENCES
 
© 2015 The Pharmaceutical Society of Japan
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