Extreme Events Decision Making in Transport Networks: A Holistic Approach Using Emergency Scenarios and Decision Making Theory

抄録

This paper proposes a novel method to analyse decision making during extreme events. The method is based on Decision making Theory and aims at understanding how emergency managers make decisions during disasters. A data collection framework and an analysis method were conceptualized to capture participant s behaviour, perception and understanding throughout a game board simulation exercise, which emulates an earthquake disaster scenario affecting transport systems. The method evaluates the participant s actions in order to identify decision-making patterns, strengths and weaknesses. A set of case studies has shown two typical patterns, namely, Support immediate rescue, Support lifelines recovery. Good decision making practices regard to objective oriented decision making, understanding of conflicting priorities and appropriate resource management. Weaknesses are associated with comprehending relationships between community/environment and projecting future scenarios. Overall, the case study s results demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method to analyse decision making during disasters.