INDONESIAN DOMESTIC SEA FREIGHT MOVEMENT MODELLING BASED ON STRAMINDO DATA (2003)

Abstract

The objective is to obtain the most appropriate transport demand models which can likely represent the behavior of port-to-port sea freight movements in terms of OD matrices. The model is developed for the purpose of forecasting the Indonesian sea freight movements using the current OD pattern and the forecasted loading and unloading volumes. The paper will report on a family of aggregate models containing a flexible Gravity-Opportunity model for modeling the trip making behavior in which standard forms of the Gravity and Intervening-Opportunity model can be obtained as special cases. Non-Linear-Least-Squares and Maximum-Likelihood estimation methods were then used to calibrate the parameter of the model. The models have been tested using the total domestic sea freight movements in 2003 (Stramindo 2003 Data) for 25 major ports in Indonesia. The models were found to provide a reasonably good fit and the calibrated parameters can then be used for forecasting purposes.