Modelling Modal Shift from Personal Vehicles to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority Measure

Abstract

This study is concerned with estimation of the probable shift of personal vehicle users to bus due to the increase in its level of service as a result of the provision of exclusive bus lanes on Indian city roads. The quantum of increase in level of service of bus due to introduction of exclusive bus lanes was determined using a recently developed simulation model for heterogeneous traffic flow. The data on the other factors (variables) that might cause modal shift from personal vehicles to bus were collected through home-interview survey using a stated preference approach. Mode-choice models to explain the shift behaviour of the users of motorised two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws, and cars to buses are developed. Modal shift probability curves are also developed to serve as a user friendly tool to analyze the probable modal shift for a wide range of the variables.