Modeling Auto-Mobility: Combining Cohort Analysis with Panel Data Econometrics

Abstract

In this paper, we present an ad hoc model for car traffic generation, which is used to make projections in 2060, according to a number of scenarios based on various assumptions about fuel prices, fuel efficiency, income growth and travel behaviors of new generations. Two sets of scenarios are successively tested, corresponding either to the “business as usual” case, or to a declining appetite for car ownership in new generations. Projection results serve to discuss the “peak car” hypothesis of a decline to come in average car travel per adult. The modelling framework is based on a sequential and individual approach to car traffic generation where the age-cohort framework is combined with panel data econometrics. Projection results suggest that under stable behaviors, “peak car” is less likely to happen than a plateau. A decline in car travel could happen, nonetheless, in case of changing behaviors in new generations.