1979 年 34 巻 p. 93-103,en208
The demand for university education service is a very important element in educational planning for Japanese future society where many of us will have higher education service.
In this paper, I gave my attention to the factors which have determined the percentage of applicants for admission to universities as the barometer of the demand for university education service, and I tried to make a quantitative analysis of the structure and structure-change of the factors. Giving my attention to the difference of percentage of applicants for admission to universities among prefectures, I made regression analysis to choose main determining factors using cross-section data of prefectures which were collected at the past four different times.
Two factors were chosen, one was occupation factor represented by the ratio of white collar workers to all workers in parent occupation, another was income factor represented by the ratio of university expenses by students to prefectural income per head. Regarding with these two factors, I further analysed the structure and structure change of the factors determining the percentage of applicants.
I used path analysis and elastisity analysis to find these interesting facts:(1) occupation factor has more effect on the determination of the percentage of applicants than income factor; but (2) income factor has increased year by year in effect on the determination of the percentage of applicants. Income factor will be the key factor to determine the future percentage of applicants for admission to universities on the bases of growing percentage of applicnts by the increasing ratio of white colar workers. Fees and scholarships will be more important in educational policy.