The European Green Deal

: Opportunities, challenges and implications for the EU and beyond

抄録

　This paper has addressed three research questions: a balance between the level of ambition and burdens or costs of transition; political or social acceptance beyond economic or technical feasibility; and ways to alleviate unintended social consequences. The significance, opportunities, and challenges of the European Green Deal are structured and framed along these three questions. The paper looks at inequity between member states and within a member state, especially focusing on a vulnerable group of society. The scale of policy changes and the level of costs associated with the changes are illustrated in cases of carbon pricing on road transport and buildings, coal phase-out, and a shift from Internal Combustion Engine vehicles. Experiences in France and Germany could provide useful inputs to the EU process to reach a consensus on the final designs of the Fit For 55 package.

　Carbon pricing is regressive in nature. Opportunities and costs associated with carbon pricing are unevenly distributed across countries, sectors, income groups, and generations. There is a high risk of disproportional impacts on the low-income or vulnerable households. Therefore, it is important to combine carbon pricing with complementary or companion measures addressing social security or/and structural changes. It is also essential to ensure that carbon pricing will be accompanied by a targeted and well-functioning re-distribution system. Such a system should provide both direct income support as a relief measure to reduce adverse effects of carbon pricing on vulnerable households and support for green investments to help them reduce energy costs in the long-term. Revenue-neutrality and ring-fencing the additional revenues for climate protection are key to political and social acceptance. Perceived unfairness, if not addressed by re-distribution, would cause discontents among those vulnerable consumers who are hit hardest by increasing energy costs, which may cause social unrest and create political turmoil in the worst case. Technical or policy solutions are necessary to address inequity, yet not sufficient. It is equally important to secure an open, transparent, and inclusive process to engage citizens in deliberation for a social pact. Elaboration on the policy designs as well as participation processes could achieve and increase political acceptability and feasibility.