The European Union's “Constitutional” crisis: background, state of play, prospects.

抄録

The paper focuses on the “crisis” that still affects the EU at large following the rejection of the so-called ‘Constitutional Treaty’ by French and Dutch voters in the spring of 2005. Such “crisis” is in part one of perception —both inside and outside the Union—and in part also one of direction, as it epitomises the difficulty of agreeing and delivering on policy for a Union of 25/27 members. Still, such a “crisis” has not prevented the EU from adopting a few important decisions on the domestic front and becoming an ever more active and visible player on the international scene.
The paper recapitulates the main stages of the “crisis”, from the shaping of the final text (2002-04), to the shock of the referenda of May/June 2005, down to the ensuing “pause of reflection” and the establishment of a sort of ‘roadmap’ for tackling institutional reform (June 2006). It then analyses the sparse proposals for a solution to the “crisis” that have been put forward since September 2006 and the political context in which the debate has resumed lately, including the positions of some key players and member states' governments: the French presidential candidates, the new Dutch coalition, the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic and, of course, Germany, that holds the rotational presidency at a decisive moment for the future of “Constitutional” deal.
Finally, it tries to evaluate the chances for a new arrangement that lie at the disposal notably of the German presidency in the run-up to the crucial European Council of 21-22 June 2007, taking into account the numerous unknowns that may still hamper a successful outcome—including the result of the French presidential and parliamentary elections of this spring.