Quantifying the Uncertainty Range of 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Abstract

This study quantified the uncertainty range of future change in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation due to global warming for Kagoshima Prefecture (except for the Amami Islands), Japan, based on regional frequency analysis, following the results of Ishihara (2010b). The uncertainty due to resampling variability was quantified with a Monte Carlo simulation based on the regional quantile function, using projection results from MRI-RCM20. The 5%–95% uncertainty ranges of the regional 30-year quantile for the present and future climates were 1.941 ± 0.117 and 2.217 ± 0.160, respectively. Moreover, the 5%–95% range of the simulated future change ratio of the regional 30-year quantile was 1.142 ± 0.107. Based on the previous result that the annual maximum daily precipitation averaged over the region is projected to increase by 3.3%, the 5%–95% uncertainty range of the future change ratio of the regional 30-year return level of daily precipitation in the region was projected to be 1.180 ± 0.111. This result indicates that the regional 30-year return level of daily precipitation in the region is likely to increase by 6.9%–29.1% in about 100 years.