抄録
This article analyzes and evaluates the R&D strategy for advanced power generation technologies, such as natural gas combined cycles, IGCCs (Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycles), and large-scale fuel cell power generation systems with a mixed-integer programming model. The R&D processes are explicitly formulated in the model through GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique), and the data on each required time of R&D was collected through questionnaire surveys among the experts. The obtained cost-effective strategy incorporates the optimum investment allocation among the developments of various elemental technologies, and at the same time, it incorporates the least-cost expansion planning of power systems in Japan including other power generation technologies such as conventional coal, oil, and gas fired, and hydro and wind power. The simulation results show the selection of the cost-effective technology developments and the importance of the concentrated investments in them. For example, IGCC, which has a relatively high thermal efficiency, and LNG-CCs of the assumed two efficiencies are the cost-effective investment targets in the no-CO2-regulation case.
