Abstract
Mutual smoothing effect of renewable energy (RE) is quite important because amount and cost of countermeasure for maintaining soundness of power system highly depend on evaluation of the effect. In spite of the importance, there is no established method to evaluate the effect yet. The paper presents a method for presuming total output fluctuation of highly penetrated RE from few measured data considering the effect. By analyzing measured data, existing photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation is revealed to be coherent at slower swing period and random at faster. To represent the PV's output fluctuation tendencies, “Transfer Hypothesis” is introduced. “Constant transfer swing period hypothesis” and “-20dB/dec slope hypothesis” are supplementary introduced. Those hypotheses are verified by direct and indirect methods using the measured data. Only 3 sites' data are able to presume total fluctuation of 15 sites successfully. Relationship of distance and transfer swing period of every 2 sites out of the 15 sites agrees to those hypotheses. Finally, the paper shows total fluctuation presumption of highly penetrated PV in Hokuriku region using proposed methods.
