Abstract
The Amami archipelago has suffered from natural disasters by typhoons almost every year. Typhoons badly damage the electric power systems, which causes often a long-time blackout. To perform speedy restoration of electric power supply, it is important to predict the amount of damage accurately for an approaching typhoon. This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of electric power damage in the Amami archipelago using a Gaussian process (GP) model. The predicted amount of damage is given by the predictive mean of the GP and the confidence measure of the predicted amount is estimated by the predictive covariance of the GP. Simulation results based on the actual data are shown to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor.
