バスケットボールの個人攻守貢献度の開発

抄録

In basketball, each player is evaluated based on measured statistics, e.g., points scored, field goal percentage, and so forth. Impact metrics are defined as those that attempt to quantify contribution of every player in a single value. In this paper, a novel impact metric named “value of contribution (VC)” is defined and validated. This metric is based on the win probability model and pairwise comparison between two lineups, i.e., two sets of five players on the court, of competing two teams. In construction of the win probability model, we developed a model that guarantees monotonicity on the score difference. For every play, the lineups are rated based on the change on win probability. VC of a player is defined by the weighted average of the ratings of lineups that include the player (the weight is playing time). By definition VC of a player estimates the win probability change per unit time when he is on the court. The proposed VC is calculated for the players in Japanese B. LEAGUE, and several case studies will inform how to use this metric in the analysis of squads.