Assessment of Energy Saving and CO₂ Mitigation Potential by Electric Vehicle and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle under Japan's Power Generation Mix

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of an extensive introduction of electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) on energy supply mix in Japan. Energy consumption in Japan's transport sector has been dominated by petroleum, and CO₂ emissions in this sector accounts for twenty percent of Japan's CO₂ emissions. Therefore, the deployment of clean energy vehicles, such as EV and PHEV, are expected to play a significant role in tackling with energy security and environmental concerns. For assessing energy and environmental benefits of EV and PHEV, we develop energy system model integrating optimal power generation mix model and vehicle penetration model, considering optimal electricity charging profile of those advanced vehicles. Calculated results suggest that massive EV penetration serves as energy saving measure in Japan's whole energy system, due to significant petroleum reduction exceeding the growth of fuel input into power generation sector derived from significant EV and PHEV penetration. Massive EV deployment is estimated to contribute to CO₂ mitigation of the energy system as well. Evaluating CO₂ emissions per mileage by automobile, however, carbon emissions per mileage of EV is almost equivalent to that of gasoline hybrid vehicle (HEV) in the case of decommissioning nuclear power plant which eventually causes higher carbon intensity of electricity supply.