Long-term Transition of the Value of PV and Wind Power Installation based on the Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario

Abstract

It is expected to promote the introduction of renewable energy (RE), such as photovoltaic (PV) and wind power (WP), from the view points of carbon dioxide reduction and diversification of energy sources. However, as the introduction of RE into the conventional power grid, output curtailment of RE will increase due to supply and demand balance constraints. In this study, we have developed a model and data which enable long-term power supply and demand analysis based on some scenarios. Using this model and data, we analyzed the transition of the amount of RE generation and the amount of RE curtailment per installed capacity. As a result, the change in the facility utilization rate of PV and WP is clarified quantitatively based on the influence of RE curtailment. The amount of PV curtailment was significantly increased in Kyushu and Tohoku area, where RE is particularly widespread. The results of this paper can be used to evaluate how and when it is necessary to take measures such as the introduction of storage batteries.