International Journal of Japan Association for Management Systems
Online ISSN : 2188-2460
Print ISSN : 1884-2089
ISSN-L : 1884-2089
Does path dependency in scientific community shape technological uncertainty?
Keisuke SHINAGAWA
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2019 Volume 11 Issue 1 Pages 41-48

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Abstract

Despite scientific innovation draws in the natural sciences, the scientific innovation literature does not address the way underlying path dependency in scientific community makes possible or impossible new product technologies that lead to the development of new products. This paper focuses on the uncertainty in the technology innovation environment caused by scientific progress by examining the competitive research between two areas of research: extreme ultra violet lithography (EUVL) and nanoimprint lithography (NIL) ; both research streams aim to develop nanometer-scale pattern technologies for LSIs fabrication. Using data from a bibliometric survey and interviews with researchers and experts, the study found that path dependency is affected by the nature of scientific progress and continuous, cumulative growth. Paying little attention to other research areas also strengthens path dependency. High-tech firms tend to choose a class with high expectations of success while ignoring other classes. Uncertainty in the technology innovation environment could be prompted when one class succeeds, and the others are exhausted. Therefore, this paper suggests that high-tech firms should diversify R&D portfolios to introduce more than one class of science.

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© 2019 Japan Association for Management Systems
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