潜在避難者を考慮した大規模災害における避難所避難者数推移の動的モデル

抄録

Management of evacuation centers and flexible support of supplies are required when a largescale disaster occurs. It is necessary to predict demand in order to transport relief goods quickly and appropriately to evacuation centers. Therefore, it is effective to predict the number of refugees in evacuation centers. Generally, the supply and demand trends vary not only due to the scale of the earthquake disaster but also depending on the occurrence situation, power outages and other conditions. In this study, we propose a dynamic model for predicting the number of evacuees. The effectiveness of the proposed model is illustrated by numerical example about case study of the Kumamoto earthquake.