Effective use of numerical models in estuary management -The case of the activities in the Chesapeake Bay Program -

Abstract

Numerical models are used in many environmental assessments and/or managements. However, they have many uncertainties. To use such imperfect numerical models properly in decisioning process of environmental management, we study the case of the estuary model in the Chesapeake Bay Program in which numerical models are used for actual decision-making. We found that the estuary model of the Chesapeake Bay was developed by the collaboration among different technical teams, advancement of computer system, establishments of technical teams divided functionally, and the existence of a neutral team for promotion of collaboration and information exchange. The neutral team held a workshop to promote the Communicaton among many kinds of investigators and performed an external review of the Water Quality Model. Based on these findings, effective uses of the numerical models are discussed the special reference to adaptive management.