選挙研究
Online ISSN : 1884-0353
Print ISSN : 0912-3512
ISSN-L : 0912-3512
一九九四年アメリカ中間選挙
共和党の勝因
西澤 由隆
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ジャーナル フリー

1996 年 11 巻 p. 23-34,144

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Using the 1994 American National Election Study data, this article tests five different hypotheses that attempt to explain the Republican victory at the 1994 Mid-term Congressional Election. Because the 1994 ANES data contains panel samples who responded at both 1992 and 1994 waves, it permits a researcher to study the reasons of the 1994 Republican vote gain from the previous election. The hypothesis tested here include: 1) Disapproval-of-Clinton-administration hypotheses, 2) personal-economic-condition hypothesis, 3) party-support-realignment hypothesis, 4) distrust-against-incumbent-candidates hypothesis, and 5) party-mobilization hypothesis. The cross-sectional analysis indicates that each factors, except for the personal economic condition, has statistically significant association with the vote choice while controlling for the effect of other factors. The panel analysis, however, suggests that the mobilization hypothesis only explains the Republican gain from the previous election. The analysis implies that unlike most journalistic accounts that tend to attribute the Republican victory to the change in voters' attitude and behavior, the electorate took only a passive role.

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