選挙研究
Online ISSN : 1884-0353
Print ISSN : 0912-3512
ISSN-L : 0912-3512
一九九五年フランス大統領選挙における投票行動
首長による選挙動員から見たJ•シラク当選の分析
増田 正
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ジャーナル フリー

1997 年 12 巻 p. 184-195,285

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In France, electoral studies have been analyzed as “géographie des élections”, which is mainly charted the results of elections in terms of left-right ideology. Although we, of course, can find papers using the multi-valuable analysis of the voting behavior of France, such are not seen a lot. That may be the reason why French academic associations -e. g., AFSP- are strongly autonomous to others.
In this paper, I introduced the multi-regressional analysis and path analysis into analyzing voting behavior of France. The main focus is on the electoral mobilization of local and regional political leaders in 1995 French Presidential Election. Using valuables are (1) rating of the first ballot of J. Chirac, (2) rating of the second ballot (ballotage) of J. Chirac, (3) party (RPR or not) and ideology (conservative or not) of mayor, (4) party and ideology of president of “conseil géneral” at the department, (5) party and ideology of president of “consel régional” at the region.
In short, as the result of these statisitacal analysis, the mobilization of mayors is the greatest of all kinds of local and regional leaders in case of votings of J. Chirac. Paths (3) to (1) and (3) to (2) are both indicated plus (+) partial correlation coefficients.
Except the domain of the political history, the voting behavior of modern France has not been studied enough yet. As the second step, the more sophistication of models are strongly required.

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