選挙研究
Online ISSN : 1884-0353
Print ISSN : 0912-3512
ISSN-L : 0912-3512
新党の登場と投票行動
多項ロジットモデルによるアプローチ
蒲島 郁夫石生 義人森 裕城
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1997 年 12 巻 p. 71-87,291

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Utilizing a national survey of eligible voters, this paper examines voting behavior during the 1993 general election with a focus on three new political parties: the Shinsei Party, the Japan New Party, and the Sakigake Party. We examined voters in districts with new party candidates separately from voters in districts without new party candidates. Voting behavior differed depending on whether or not voters had a choice to vote for a new party candidate. First, we found that people who voted for the LDP in 1990 were more likely to vote for the LDP again in 1993 if they voted in districts without a new party candidate. If they voted in districts with a new party candidate, they were less likely to vote for the LDP. This same tendency held true for JSP voters. Second, using a multinomial logistic regression we examined voters in districts with a new party candidates. We found that, when compared with LDP voters, new party voters had more favorable opinions toward new parties, their candidates, and opposition parties (excluding the JSP). Moreover, new party voters had less favorable opinions toward the LDP and its candidates, saw a stronger need for power changes, were more progressive, were more politically dissatisfied, and were less likely to be members of candidate support groups. We also found that new party voters were moderate in terms of ideology, political dissatisfaction desiring power changes. In other words although, new party voters felt stronger than LDP voters about changing the status quo, new party voters did not seek the drastic changes sought by voters of other opposition parties. In terms of socio-economic characteristics, new party voters were not significantly different from LDP voters.

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