1998 年 13 巻 p. 120-129,271
The objective of this paper is to see if national election turnouts are significantly affected by local and national politicians' campaign efforts. I conducted a multivariate analysis, controlling for other factors that we know affect national election turnouts, and find the following results. First, I find that there is a statistically significant relationship between national election turnouts and local politicians' mobilization-related efforts. This relationship is more conspicuous in House of Councillors (HC) elections than in House of Representatives (HR) elections, implying that local politicians' mobilization-related efforts seem to play more pivotal roles in affecting the turnouts for HC elections than for HR elections, other things equal.
Second, I find a statistically significant relationship between national election turnouts and national politicians' mobilization-related efforts. I proxy national politicians' mobilization-related efforts as how much campaign money national politicians spend per eligible voter in each district. National politicians' mobilization-related efforts are positively correlated to turnouts for both houses' elections, meaning that spending campaign money boosts national election turnouts. Further, I find that money has more impact in HC than in HR elections.
Last, the occurrence of a double election increases the turnout for both houses' elections. Whenever the two houses' elections coincide, the average turnout is boosted by 3% for HC elections and 10% for HR elections.