1994 年 9 巻 p. 2-15,136
Japan's political arena changed dramatically around the General Election of the House of Representatives on July 18, 1993 following the split of Shinsei Party and Sakigake Party out of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the long-time ruling party in post-war Japan. This general election was also clearly characterized by the successful campaign of Nihon New Party (NNP; Nihon Shinto).
This article aims to provide an interpretation of the role of those three new parties at the 1993 General Election, based on the first series of analyses of our national panel survey. Particularly, this article focuses on three questions: (1) where did those supporters of the three new parties come from? (2) who voted for those three parties? (3) how stable are the supporters of those new parties, in terms of their partisanship as well as their social attributes?
The article first briefly compared new parties in the past with those in 1993. Then, the sources of three new party supporters were examined. While the voters of Shinsei and Sakigake mainly came from former LDP voters (60%) and very few from Japan Socialist Party (JSP), 45% of the NNP voters came from LDP and 20% of NNP came from JSP.
In other dimensions, the supporters of three new parties were somewhat different each other, while they were clearly different from the LDP and JSP supporters respectively. The NNP supporters were the best educated, least rural, most urban and the fewest in agriculture, while the LDP partisans were the least educated, most rural, and the fewest in white-collar jobs. The Shinsei supporters were similar to the LDP partisans only in term of the strong rural orientation but were very different on other dimensions. The Sakigake supporters were in the middle between the NNP and the Shinsei supporters. Finally, the new party supporters were not stable throughout the panel study.