政治的評価と経済的評価

自民党支持•内閣支持•投票行動を規定するもの

抄録

This article explores the effects of economic attitudes of Japanese electorate on their political attitudes and behavior. On the basis of the survey data collected during the 1992 House of Councillors election, three dependent variables-LDP support, cabinet support, and LDP vote-are explained by the economic attitudes toward national and personal economic conditions, and LDP goverment's economic performance and policy. These independent variables include both retrospective and prospective evaluations.
The results of multiple regression analysis show that electorate use different “schema” for evaluating each of three objects. The LDP support is strongly affected by the trust in the LDP government's future economic performance. In other words, it has prospective nature. The cabinet support is short term evaluation, and only this is affected by the expectation of LDP government's future economic policy. LDP vote, on the other hand, is on the basis of the “reward and punishment” type retrospective evaluation.
The reletionship between these results and the aggregate-level findings is also discussed.