日本法科学技術学会誌
Online ISSN : 1881-4689
Print ISSN : 1880-1323
ISSN-L : 1880-1323
原著
住居対象連続侵入窃盗事件における犯人属性の犯罪手口による予測
萩野谷 俊平花山 愛子小野 修一蒲生 晋介真栄平 亮太細川 豊治
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ジャーナル フリー

2014 年 19 巻 1 号 p. 31-43

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  The objective of this study was to identify patterns of modus operandi that would be effective for predicting offender characteristics. For this purpose, logistic regression models were developed based on offender characteristics (17 variables) and modus operandi (50 variables) related to burglaries of residences, by using a stepwise method. Useful models were selected by using the area under the ROC curve, and by improvements in prediction accuracy from the prior probability, based on the frequency of the category of each offender characteristic. Models containing the following four offender characteristics were selected as useful: age, presence of a co-offender, criminal history of house burglaries with no one home, and criminal history of house burglaries late at night. Burglary experiences and age emerged as common potential factors of modus operandi and offender characteristics. It is suggested that selected modus operandi could be utilized to predict offender characteristics.

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© 2014 日本法科学技術学会
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