掘削作業における確率的リスク評価の実例

抄録

Needless to say, a lot of uncertainties lie in drilling operations because it is impossible for us to see the underground with our own eyes. Additionally, experiences on drilling operations are hard to be evaluated quantitatively. For that reason, to pass down the experiences to the future and to share the experiences are very difficult.
Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. (JAPEX) attempts to evaluate drilling operations so that everyone who is involved in drilling operations can make efficient use of them, which he or she doesn't experience directly.
In this paper, four examples of JAPEX's effort for quantitative evaluation of drilling operations with the probabilistic point of view are discussed.