The Stepwise Formation of Political Orientation and “External” Relation of the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia: Is Gagauzia a pro-Russian Enclave in the Republic of Moldova?

Abstract

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia in the Republic of Moldova has been drawing a lot of attention from the mass media. The majority of mass media define Gagauzia as a “pro-Russian territorial entity” that may contain the potential to transform into the “Second Donbas” under the aim of political destabilization of Moldova by Russia. Once Gagauzia, unlike Transnistria, has received a positive evaluation, that would not be a major obstacle to the EU integration process of Moldova. In recent years, because Bashkan（governor of Gagauzia）has several possibilities to be an executive member of the Moldovan parliament and government, some researchers have given a negative remark to Gagauzia as a “Trojan Horse” through which Russia might exercise political influence to establish pro-Russian forces in Moldova.

However, we should not easily generalize the political orientation of the Gagauzia government and the minds of local Gagauz people as “pro-Russian.” It is expected that their outwardly “pro-Russian” sentiment has been gradually formed, as they have been experiencing political, social, and economic turmoil after the collapse of the USSR. This paper analyzes:（1）how the Gagauzia political orientation, which seems like “pro-Russian,” has emerged, facing severe political and social realities;（2）whether it is correct to identify the orientation as truly “pro-Russian.” The first part of the paper traces Bashkan elections. The elections are quite effective in grasping urgent political-social issues at that time and internal-external standpoints of Bashkan candidates because smoldering discontent was rising to the surface, especially during election campaigns. The second and third parts extract inner and outer factors that have had a grave impact on the political decision and orientation of Gagauzia and the Gagauz people.