Consideration of a method to predict the impacts of air temperature change on vegetable cultivation

- an approach from production costs -

Abstract

This paper considers a method to predict global warming impacts on vegetable cultivation. Crop models of major cereals are often used for impact prediction. However, according to previous literature, it is difficult to develop crop models of vegetables because the number of vegetable varieties is much more than that of cereals. Therefore, we consider an alternative method. Results of regression analysis show that air temperature of production environment can explain production costs of some vegetables. This implies that vegetable cultivation at temperatures below or above optimal range has already introduced some adaptation methods, which vary production cost. In order to ascertain substance of adaptation methods, we conduct regression analysis between temperature and itemized production costs. Results show that fertilizer cost, chemical cost, energy and power cost, seedling cost, and management cost are sensitive to temperature and they are thought to be closely related to adaptation methods. Based on the relation between temperature and production cost, global warming impacts on vegetable cultivation will be able to be predicted.