Journal of Epidemiology
Online ISSN : 1349-9092
Print ISSN : 0917-5040
ISSN-L : 0917-5040
Original Article
Changes in Waist Circumference and the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Community-Dwelling Men and Women: The Suita Study
Yukako TatsumiMakoto WatanabeMichikazu NakaiYoshihiro KokuboAya HigashiyamaKunihiro NishimuraTakashi KobayashiMisa TakegamiYoko M. NakaoTakuya WatanabeAkira OkayamaTomonori OkamuraYoshihiro Miyamoto
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Supplementary material

2015 Volume 25 Issue 7 Pages 489-495


Backgrounds: The association between weight gain and the incidence of type 2 diabetes is well known. The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between change in waist circumference (WC) and type 2 diabetes incidence.
Methods: The participants in the Suita Study, a population-based cohort study in an urban area of Japan, underwent a baseline survey between 1989 and 1994 (Exam 1) and were examined at follow-up every 2 years. We performed a 9.3-year cohort study of 946 men and 1327 women with no history of diabetes who underwent Exam 1 and Exam 2 (between 1997 and 1999). Participants were stratified by sex and median WC at Exam 1, and, in each stratum, participants were further classified into three categories by tertile of WC change per year between Exam 1 and Exam 2. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type 2 diabetes incidence were calculated by Cox proportional hazard models. The endpoints were first diagnosis of type 2 diabetes or March 2011.
Results: During follow-up, 287 participants developed type 2 diabetes. In both sexes with median WC or higher, participants in the highest tertile of WC change had a significantly higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Multivariable adjusted HRs were 1.84 (95% CI, 1.10–3.08) in men and 2.30 (95% CI, 1.31–4.04) in women. No significant association was observed among participants with WC below median.
Conclusions: Preventing WC gain is important in preventing type 2 diabetes in the Japanese population, especially among individuals with a relatively high WC.

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© 2015 Yukako Tatsumi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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