Journal of Epidemiology
Online ISSN : 1349-9092
Print ISSN : 0917-5040
Original Article
Breast Cancer Incidence Trends and Projections in Northeastern Thailand
Shama ViraniJarin ChindaprasirtKosin WirasornAumkhae SookprasertOngart SomintaraDamnern VachirodomSupinda KoonmeeJirapon SrinakarinSupot Kamsa-ardKrittika SuwanrungruangLaura S. RozekHutcha SriplungSurapon Wiangnon
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2018 Volume 28 Issue 7 Pages 323-330


Background: The northeast has the lowest incidence of breast cancer of all regions in Thailand, although national rates are increasing. The heterogeneity in subnational trends necessitates a comprehensive evaluation of breast cancer incidence trends and projections to provide evidence for future region-specific strategies that may be employed to attenuate this growing burden.

Methods: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling were used to describe trends from 1988–2012. Data was projected from three separate models to provide a range of estimates of incidence to the year 2030 by age group.

Results: Age-standardized rates (ASRs) increased significantly for all women from 1995–2012 by 4.5% per year. Rates for women below age 50 increased by 5.1% per year, while women age 50 years and older increased by 6% per year from 1988–2012. Projected rates show that women age 50 years and older have the largest projected increase in ASRs by 2030 compared to younger women and all women combined.

Conclusions: Breast cancer trends in Khon Kaen are presently lower than other regions but are expected to increase and become comparable to other regions by 2030, particularly for women ages 50 years and older.

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© 2018 Shama Virani et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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