Journal of Epidemiology
Online ISSN : 1349-9092
Print ISSN : 0917-5040
Original Article
A Point System for Predicting 10-Year Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Men: Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study
Hiroshi YatsuyaYuanying LiYoshihisa HirakawaAtsuhiko OtaMasaaki MatsunagaHilawe Esayas HaregotChifa ChiangYan ZhangKoji TamakoshiHideaki ToyoshimaAtsuko Aoyama
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2018 Volume 28 Issue 8 Pages 347-352


Background: Relatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men.

Methods: We followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers’ Cohort Study, who were aged 35–64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study’s model.

Results: During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects.

Conclusion: The point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.

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© 2018 Hiroshi Yatsuya et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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