地学雑誌
Online ISSN : 1884-0884
Print ISSN : 0022-135X
ISSN-L : 0022-135X
東北日本における火山噴火および内陸地震 (M≧6.2) と三陸沖の巨大地震 (M8クラス) との時間的関連性について
中禮 正明
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ジャーナル フリー

2002 年 111 巻 2 号 p. 175-184

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Great earthquakes, inland shallow earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occurred historically in and around the northern Honshu region, the northeastern part of the Japan island arc system. We studied statistically the time-space correlation among great offshore earthquakes with magnitudes (M) larger than 7.8 near the Japan trench, inland shallow earthquakes with M 6.2 and the volcanic eruptions, for the period from 1851 to 1996. We focus on the northern Honshu region in this study. During the period, there were four offshore great earthquakes near the Japan trench. Their magnitudes are M7.9 (1856), M8.2 (1896), M8.1 (1933), and M7.9 (1968). To estimate the temporal correlation among these events, we applied a statistical analysis that is one of the currently used methods in earthquake prediction research works. Our analysis suggests that alarm-like information could be issued for the inland volcanoes and the large inland earthquakes in the northern Honshu, at the occurrence time of the four great earthquakes near the Japan trench. We then found some simultaneous occurrence pattern between the large inland earthquakes and the volcanic eruptions, just prior to the four great earthquakes or just afterwards. As a result, the temporal correlation among the volcanic eruptions, the large inland shallow earthquakes and the four great earthquakes is not statistically negligible. This result suggests that the space-time relationship among the volcanic eruptions, the large inland shallow earthquakes and the great earthquakes near the trench is not only useful for researches on long-term earthquake prediction and volcanic eruption, but also important for understanding seismotectonics in the northern Honshu region.

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