2002 Volume 111 Issue 2 Pages 298-307
We attempt to simulate the activity of earthquakes of moderate to large sizes in and around the Japanese islands using a block and fault model, in which slip deficit rates were derived from triangulation and trilateration data covering one-hundred years. The original block and fault model has 104 faults. However, the original fault size is too large to simulate moderate earthquakes. Therefore, we divide each modeled fault into 5 × 5 elements to generate earthquakes as small as M5. In total there are 2600 elements. We assume stress accumulates according to the estimated slip deficit rates. Interaction between fault elements is represented by changes in Coulomb Failure Function (hereafter Δ CFF) induced by the movement of other faults that are determined by the geometrical relationship and the direction of slip deficit rates. When stress reaches the threshold level, accumulated CFF is released by a forward slip and redistributed to surrounding faults according to the CFF changes calculated above. If the redistribution of CFF induces the next rupture, the same process is repeated until there are no more rupturing elements. We assume rupture thresholds to be 2.5 MPa for interplate boundaries and 10 MPa for inland faults, respectively. We simulate seismicity for 10000 years with a time step of 1 year.
In this simulation large events that rupture almost all elements of a fault rarely occur. This suggests that strain rates derived from geological data or historical earthquake catalog might be underestimated. Simulated seismicity does not satisfactorily fit the GutenbergRichter's law, because moderate events occur more frequently than small or large events. This suggests that we have to incorporate heterogeneity in the rupture threshold or the size of elements on a fault plane. The correlation between interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough and inland events in southwest Japan is not clear, but there seems to be a complementary relationship in activities between both regions. Migration of large events along the Nankai trough is occasionally seen in this simulation, but its direction is different from time to time.
