比例ハザード・モデルを用いた長期低線量放射線被曝による健康影響の評価
1982 年 17 巻 2 号 p. 127-136
詳細
1982 年 17 巻 2 号 p. 127-136
As a method for analysing epidemiological observations from populations occupationaly exposed to radiation, the proportional hazard model was applied to the simulated observations on the mortality assuming 40 years follow-up. The risk factor of cancer death for compiling the simulation is based on the value proposed by ICRP. The applicability of this method is discussed.
Using the proportional hazard model, the estimated least population size for detecting the excess cancer deaths is 50 to 150 thousand. Two alternative conditions are also investigated using simulated observations, i. e., the risk factor is assumed 10 times greater, and the length of follow-up study period is shortened to 30 years.
This method was compared to the multiple logistic model applied to deceased samples. The former method was more adoptive from the viewpoint of reducing the effects from time trend factors.
Therefore, the proportional hazard model is applicable to assess the risk level of cancer death from radiation exposures based on the follow-up studies of human populations.
