Stochastic Study on the Sales Pattern of Influenza Anti-Viral Agents at Pharmacies

Abstract

This paper focuses on the stochastic analysis of the daily variations in formulations dispensed at pharmacies. A recent study showed that the cross-correlation functions between the time variations can be used for estimating the route and speed of influenza propagation process in society. In reality, however, the peak-shaped signals of the time variations and cross-correlation function are so complicated and noisy that it is almost impossible to know the original shape of the signals. The aim of this paper is to give an answer to this problem by considering the mathematical relationship between the time variations and cross-correlation function. Influenza anti-viral agents for adults and children are taken as an example.