二酸化炭素排出制約下における中国の産業部門の省エネルギー技術導入に関するモデル分析

抄録

This paper presents the result of investigating how energy-efficient technologies are expected to diffuse in the Chinese industry when the national CO₂ emission is to be reduced using GOAL model, a linear optimization model of energy system covering seven countries in the eastern Asia. Current energy consumption in the Chinese industry is surveyed, where energy services are grouped into steel making, cement production, ammonia production, paper production, process heat, motive power and lighting. Twenty-three energy-efficient technologies are prepared as options for these end-uses. The diffusion rates of the twenty-three technologies in the period between 2010 and 2030 are obtained under constraint on the national CO₂ emission at different levels. Some energy-efficient measures such as hot direct charging in steel making, black liquor recovery in paper production and oxygen rich continuous gasification in small- and medium-size ammonia production are found viable only with the help of a stringent CO₂ emission reduction. Energy intensities of crude steel, cement, ammonia and paper in the year 2020 are estimated and compared with the current values.