Evaluation of Penetration of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles and CO₂ Emissions Considering Utilization Patterns and Power Generation Mix

Abstract

A Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a kind of hybrid electric vehicles, which can be charged from the electric grid and can provide several ten kilometers of all-electric driving range. Due to recent introduction of hybrid electric vehicles and development of advanced batteries such as the lithium-ion battery, PHEV is expected as a good candidate to reduce oil consumption and CO₂ emission in Japan. The purpose of this study is to analysis the economic advantage and ecological effects of PHEV in Japan considering utilization patterns and electricity supply mixture. The results are as follows: (1) Considering the utilization patterns of passenger vehicles in Japan, PHEV with 35 kilometers of all-electric driving range could reduce oil consumption by 58 % compared with HEV. (2) When the total of vehicle cost and discounted fuel cost is minimized, the PHEV will become widespread after 2010, and it will account for 80% of all passenger vehicle market after 2030. (3)In the case of (2), it will reduce CO₂ emission by about 57 million t-CO₂ in 2050 compared with that of all gasoline vehicles in 2050.