中国のエネルギー需給構造の推定

抄録

Based on our previous study of the Chinese energy structure up to the year 2010, the impact of energy supply related costs, such as energy price and energy conversion capital cost, on the energy supply and demand structure in China to the year 2025 was evaluated. To simplify the analysis, the total energy system cost was minimized using linear programming techniques.
As a result of thisstudy, it was clarifed that if crude oil imports to China were limited to 200Mtoe/year, which corresponds to the quantity imported by Japan in 1990, coal liquefaction technology would be introduced at ca. 2020, as the domestic crude oil supply would have been depleted by that time . To meet gasoline demand, a larger quantity of coal must be liquefied because the gasoline fraction in oil fromcoal liquefaction is smaller than that of crude oil. But simultaneously the consumption of raw coal in the final energy demand sectors, the industry and the residential sectors would decrease because gas and heavy oil produced by coal liquefaction would be used in those sectors.