Development of Gray System Model on Energy Consumption and Emissions of Air Pollutants and GHGs in China (I)

Gray System Model on Energy Consumption in China

抄録

The detailed analysis and forecast model by province (30), energy demand sector (60) and fuel type (22) in China was developed based on Gray System Theory. According to China's economic and social development strategies, and energy-conservation policies, the energy consumption by province, sector and fuel type by 2030 for two scenarios: the high and low economic growths were projected. Whereas the statistical data of energy consumption, GDP and population from 1991 to 1996 are taken as the observation period, and the year-1991 is taken as the basic base year, the detailed energy balance tables by province were projected. For Scenario 1, the increase tendency of final energy consumption will become gradual after 2025 and will reach 24, 400Pcal in 2030. For Scenario 2, the final energy consumption will reach the peak 19, 800Pcal in 2025, and decrease after 2025. The coal will still possess a dominant status in China's primary energy consumption although its share in total primary energy consumption amount decreases to 65.2% and 63.1% from 74.5% of 1995 for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030. The average growth rate of final energy consumption (3.6% and 2.8% respectively for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) is far lower than that of GDP (7.6% and 6.7% respectively for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) in China from 1995 to 2030.